GIKA 2019 Chile

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Volume 12 (2018) Volume 11 (2017) Volume 10 (2016) Volume 9 (2015) Volume 8 (2014) Volume 7 (2013) Volume 6 (2012) Volume 5 (2011) Volume 4 (2010) Volume 3 (2009) Volume 2 (2008) Volume 1 (2007)

Volume 12 Issue 2 (2018)

Assessing Outsourced Distribution Channels original article

pp. 129-138 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.267

Jan Vlachý

Abstract

We respond to recent failed initiatives of the Czech banking market to develop business models for the sale of retail deposit products, based on third-party distribution channels. We argue that the issue is the application of inappropriate capital budgeting methods. While static cost-benefit analysis seems to be generally appropriate for conventional banking projects based on branching or internet, they provide grossly misleading estimates of commissioning expenses, which can lead to completely unrealistic project assessments and poorly designed commission schedules. Alternatively, we derive a dynamic model based on statistical simulation (Monte Carlo) and using a real-life case study to illustrate the impacts of particular value drivers on commissioning costs. Our analysis shows that conventional and simulation-based budgeting generates inverse cost functions over time, and the difference becomes operationally tangible in the second and third year of the project, which is commensurate with the apparent timing of the bank’s business strategy revisions. To fulfill the goal of this paper, we demonstrate that statistical simulation is an expedient tool for managerial support and capital budgeting in cases where value drivers are impacted by non-linear dynamic processes.

Keywords: Consumer Banking, Capital Budgeting, Distribution Networks, Sales Outsourcing, Statistical Simulation

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Influence of Governance Indicators on Illicit Financial Outflow from Developing Countries original article

pp. 139-152 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.268

Anselm Komla Abotsi

Abstract

Economic growth has traditionally been attributed to the accumulation of human and physical capital and the increased productivity arising from technological innovation. The quest to attract physical capital led to the design and implementation of policies and the building of institutions by governments of developing countries to create a congenial investment environment to attract foreign investors. The multinational corporations operating in these developing countries take advantage of these policies to profit from these countries in terms of capital through both legal and fraudulent activities. For governments and stakeholders to be able to fight this menace of illicit financial outflow, there is a need for a comprehensive scrutiny of the quality of governance indicators that enhance the activities of these multinational companies. Therefore, this study seeks to explore the influence of cross-country indicators of governance on the illicit financial flow from developing countries. This study is based on secondary data (panel) derived from the Global Financial Integrity, World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators. The total number of developing countries included in the analysis is 139, and 1562 observations are included. Using the multilevel estimation approach, the study finds that regulatory quality has a negative and significant influence on the illicit financial flow, while government effectiveness, corruption and FDI net inflows have a significant positive effect. This finding calls for developing countries to design and implement sound policies, build effective and accountable institutions, control corruption and enhance regulatory quality to control this issue.

Keywords: illicit financial outflow, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, corruption, regulatory quality

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Corporate Internet Reporting and Firm Performance: Evidence from Malaysia original article

pp. 153-164 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.269

Chai J Sia, Rayenda Brahmana, Gesti Memarista

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence showed that the portion of internet users to the population in Malaysia is relatively higher among developing economies. However, there are not many Malaysian listed companies that use the internet as a platform for financial information disclosure. Perhaps, the managers do not believe that there is positive association between internet reporting and firm performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of corporate internet reporting (CIR) on firm performance for a sample of 583 non-financial listed companies in Malaysia over the year of 2013. We use content analysis to retrieve the internet reporting items and test its validity and reliability before running the regression model. The findings showed that CIR has a significant effect on firm value. This means that more related information that is regularly disclosed on the company’s websites can contribute more value to the firms. Meanwhile, company size does not significantly influence firm value. The firm’s leverage is negative and statistically significant, and the growth brings a positive significant effect to the firm’s value. In addition, in this study, the results support the resource-based view theory and the signaling theory between corporate internet reporting and firm value. The findings of the research suggest that companies should disclose more information through the internet in order to ensure the accessibility of financial information for stakeholders, and this will present a better image and reputation of the company’s best practices in financial performance. CIR will help them to have meaningful investment decisions and persuade them to invest in the company.

Keywords: Corporate internet reporting (CIR), firm performance, size, leverage, growth

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The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios original article

pp. 165-188 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.270

Tomasz Korol

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the issue of forecasting financial ratios. The objective of the conducted research is to develop a predictive model with the use of an innovative methodology, i.e., fuzzy logic theory, and to evaluate its effectiveness. Fuzzy logic has been widely used in machinery, robotics and industrial engineering. This paper introduces the use of fuzzy logic for the financial analysis of enterprises. While many current phenomena in finance and economics are fuzzy, they are treated as if they are crisp. Fuzzy logic provides an appropriate tool for modeling imprecise, uncertain and ambiguous phenomena. Because the financial situation of a company is affected by many factors (economic, political, psychological, etc.) that cannot be precisely and unambiguously defined, the approach used in this paper greatly enhances the predictive power of financial analysis and makes it an economically useful tool for the management of enterprises. Empirically, this paper employs three testing samples: Central European enterprises, Latin American companies and global firms. From the verification of these models, it is evident that the refined processes are effective in improving the forecasting of financial situations of all three types of enterprises. The models created by the author are characterized by high efficiency. This study is one of the world’s first attempts to combine ratio analysis with fuzzy logic to predict the financial situations of companies.

Keywords: decision support systems, financial ratios, fuzzy logic, forecasting, financial crisis

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Tripartite Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa original article

pp. 189-206 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.271

Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe, Hooi Hooi Lean

Abstract

This study examines the tripartite relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa for the 1980-2014 period. The study reveals a long-run causal relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth, thereby supporting finance- and trade-led growth hypotheses for Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. Moreover, long-run causality from financial development and economic growth to trade openness is found for Ghana. In the short-run, there is evidence of causality from growth to financial development for Ghana, from trade openness to financial development for Nigeria and from growth and financial development to trade openness for South Africa. The findings of this study are robust to alternative proxies of financial development and various diagnostic tests. The study shows that financial development and trade openness can be deployed to accelerate growth, while growth and financial development can be used to promote trade openness. Additionally, trade openness spurs financial development. Therefore, a tripartite relationship exists between the three variables. Hence, interdependence between financial development, trade openness and economic growth is found and consequent policy recommendations are made.

Keywords: Financial development, Trade openness, Economic growth

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Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania original article

pp. 207-222 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.272

Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, Nicholas M Odhiambo

Abstract

The role of monetary policy in promoting economic growth remains empirically an open research question. This paper attempts to bridge the knowledge gap by investigating the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Tanzania during the period from 1975 to 2013, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. To our knowledge, this study may be the first of its kind to examine in detail this nexus in Tanzania. The study uses two proxies of monetary policy, namely, money supply and interest rate, to examine this linkage. The empirical results of this study reveal no impact of monetary policy on economic growth in the long term – irrespective of the proxy used to measure monetary policy. However, the short-term results confirm the existence of monetary policy neutrality – but only when the interest rate is used as a proxy for monetary policy. When money supply is used to measure monetary policy, a negative relationship between monetary policy and economic growth is found to predominate. The study findings suggest that monetary policy may not be a panacea for economic growth in Tanzania.

Keywords: Monetary policy, economic growth, interest rate, money supply

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Working Capital Management through the Business Cycle: Evidence from the Corporate Sector in Poland original article

pp. 223-236 | First published in 30 June 2018 | DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.273

Paweł Mielcarz, Dmytro Osiichuk, Paweł Wnuczak

Abstract

The paper examines the influence of the business cycle on working capital management strategies based on evidence from the Polish corporate sector. By exploring the interrelation between working capital investment and profitability ratios, we attempt to define the respective transmission mechanisms and summarize the principles of sound financial management across the economic cycle. We found that more profitable companies tend to implement a more conservative working capital management strategy during recessions and that underperforming firms may be urged to cut working capital in response to plummeting cash flows. The accumulation of precautionary cash reserves appears to help firms navigate through times of economic turmoil. The paper highlights the importance of working capital management for optimizing a firm’s profitability. Research outcomes may point to the redistributive function of trade finance under conditions of financing constraints, which become particularly acute during troughs aggravated by a credit market crunch.

Keywords: working capital, business cycle, profitability

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